Still a formidable promise at 62, By Adewale Ajadi

…even though at 62 Nigeria is the number one economy in Africa and most likely will lead the continent into making this century truly one of the global African, it has many things to continue to work on. Nigeria’s work must be creative and incremental, as it has no way of ever stopping to work. Even though poverty has steadily decreased since 1995, the poverty ratio of about 40% of the population is high. We must bridge the gap between North and South on this…

At 62, Nigeria is the world’s 31st largest economy and its seventh most populous country. It has moved from $93 per capita in 1960 to $2,085 in 2021, with a population increase from 45.14 million people in 1960 to 211.40 million in 2021, indicating a growth of 368%. The measure of economic inequality, which shows greater equality if the number is lower, reflects that the Nigerian gini co-efficient at 1970 was 59.8 and in 2022 it is 35.1, almost the same as that of the United Kingdom. More telling, life expectancy in 1960 was 37 years and in 2022 it is 55 years (the highest ever).

Nigeria is not a failed state or a failed experiment by any measure. It is a steadily evolving and emergent country whose inevitable challenges are often the pathway to greatness, if resolved with intention, persistence and resilience. A very unusual country even at 62, which is quite young. A country where there is no hegemonic ethnic nationality as a dominant force, this is the place of nearly 400 different ethnicities and well over 500 languages.

A country which at 62 years was analysed by Stears Business in 2022 as being second in the global ranking for top performing entertainment and the media consumer market in the music Industry. In 2022 alone it stands atop the world in film industry output, with 1,094 movies already produced. Why, today, 62 years after Independence, does one of the main presidential candidates build his platform with some success on the notion of Nigeria as a failed state or state failure? Why do the elite and the media insist that the nation is on the brink of collapse? This cry and call is amplified in the Western media through CNN, sometimes BBC and even now Al Jazeera. Why is it that all the other positive things do not matter?

There is the Nigeria of insecurity. For a country which, asides a few military coups and one civil war, it has had very little mass conflict to deal with, it now seems that violence has become privatised on a mass scale. War lords, whether terrorists or even criminals, seem to currently have the effrontery to take on the state, with the Nigerian Police especially as the targets of humiliating attacks. The Nigerian, especially in the rural areas where the formal presence of the state is sparse, is targeted for kidnapping, torture, rape and murder. However, are the realities as bad or close to what is publicly highlighted?

If there are critical problems at 62, the worst is the role of the Nigerian woman and girl… The average Nigerian woman has five children and inevitably carries the burden of growing the next generation disproportionately, but is rarely represented in top political offices, rewarded on the farm where she works or is free from rape or harassment in the pursuit of her life. If there is anything that blocks the greatness of Nigeria, it is simply this.

With the average age of the Nigerian at 18, is this not even a signal of the critical pathway to worse or to greatness? There is some reassurance in the 2021 Global Terrorism Index, with a 70% reduction in deaths from terror from the peak in 2014, when there was a bombing spree across the country. Furthermore, the same data reports that the economic impact of terrorism has declined by 65% and casualties related to terror have dropped by 50% between 2020 and 2021. This was before the more recent military onslaught against bandits and terrorists in 2022. These do not mean individual incidents are insignificant, but perhaps if the inevitable but totally unacceptable events were properly put in context, the fear of ‘insecurity’ in the country would be more rational and risks would be better understood.

There is the concern about the rate of borrowing or debt currently at about 23% of GDP, which is not high, especially in the current economic climate; for example the UK debt is 95% of GDP. However, the concern is about revenue availability to service debt, especially when you are running a deficit like Nigeria is currently doing. The fact that about 58% of its external debts are concessional or semi-concessional from multilateral lenders means it can renegotiate its commitment to ease the revenue burden and reschedule its payment. In any event, the Nigerian tax-to-GDP rate at about 8% is one of the lowest in the world and that is the critically unsustainable part. Worse is its continuation at subsidising petroleum, even if there are emergent solutions.

If there are critical problems at 62, the worst is the role of the Nigerian woman and girl. The female population of Nigeria is 49.31%. Just under half of the population are largely reduced from their potential to be equal players in the task of realising the greatness of the country. The average Nigerian woman has five children and inevitably carries the burden of growing the next generation disproportionately, but is rarely represented in top political offices, rewarded on the farm where she works or is free from rape or harassment in the pursuit of her life. If there is anything that blocks the greatness of Nigeria, it is simply this. At 62, the country is a bastion of misogyny and acceptance of toxic masculinity that has reduced the female capacity to the size and shape of her backside generally.

There is also the indoctrination of the Nigerian elite into a ‘white supremacist‘ scarcity mentality that means they are addicted to state capture. This is to the point where there is consensus against anyone, amongst them the current president, because their control of the commonwealth is either threatened or stopped. In spite of the social mobility that has benefited the Nigerian elite (in a largely rentier economy), many with working and underclass roots, their fear of lack has blinded and continues to blind them to investing in systemic change towards abundance. It is this that is most likely to give them viability and option, rather than capital flight. They have not learnt that no previous generation has been able to pass on wealth in a sustained way for more than one generation so far. Capitalist me-first or me-alone assumptions of trickling down only leads to a fractured and angry society.

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Nigeria is no less great because we have problems and challenges but we needn’t use these as reasons to diminish each other and our future. We are greater in spite of these things because we resolve, are committed to and work together to do better. For that we need a politics were we can agree to disagree without being disagreeable. Where we recognise what the political rivals have done but put still forward how we can even be and do better.

So even though at 62 Nigeria is the number one economy in Africa and most likely will lead the continent into making this century truly one of the global African, it has many things to continue to work on. Nigeria’s work must be creative and incremental, as it has no way of ever stopping to work. Even though poverty has steadily decreased since 1995, the poverty ratio of about 40% of the population is high. We must bridge the gap between North and South on this (the poverty rate in Zamfara and Sokoto is up to 80%). It means we need to use the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement as the basis to free our trade and export from the coastal and shipping obsession. Our trade with the continent will be through the North, as our ancestors did during the Trans Sahara Trade but this time through critical infrastructure like rail and telecoms.

We need to boost our economic focus far beyond oil exports, as we see agriculture open up markets globally, with cashew and sesame, but also processing cocoa and making spaces for our capacity to create digital services and solutions as our steps frame future progress.

The Nigeria of the next decade and more must move beyond the blindness of ethnic competition to totally realising the potential for leveraging our diversity as catalyst for unique and creative solutions. Nigeria is no less great because we have problems and challenges but we needn’t use these as reasons to diminish each other and our future. We are greater in spite of these things because we resolve, are committed to and work together to do better. For that we need a politics were we can agree to disagree without being disagreeable. Where we recognise what the political rivals have done but put still forward how we can even be and do better. Where ethnicity is not the basis of disqualification but action, as well as where character defines issues. Where we never stand against each other on national security or score political points when the lives of our people are lost.

In all, we must recognise that this country where or to which we are born, is the opportunity of our lifetime to become a true ancestor and leave a legacy of what truly matters and is worthy. Now and forever, how great is it to be born into Nigeria, this unique as well as incredible promise for humanity.

A blessed Nigerian Independence Day to everyone.

Adewale Ajadi, a lawyer, creative consultant and leadership expert, is author of Omoluwabi 2.0: A Code of Transformation in 21st Century Nigeria.